Aurum A: Chicago Deepdish, Ragnarok Loki, Galactic Gibbons, Hammerhead, Cosmic Castaways, Monarch
Chicago Deepdish looks to be the best team in the group. If the recent removal of their best player Smokey ends up hurting them, I could see either Ragnarok Loki or the Galactic Gibbons coming out of this group as the best team despite the ending record.
The winner of the Week 5 game between Loki and Gibbons will end up as the second team in the group, and qualify for A pool in stage 2. These two teams have looked almost identical, having the same map scores, other than Gibbons dropping a map to the Cosmic Castaways in Week 1.
Whichever team ends up in A pool will probably do mediocre, while the one who ends up in B pool will probably finish top 2 in their group, eventually having a better seed for playoffs.
Hammerhead has been an inconsistent team, especially when you look at their match scores. They took a map off of Chicago Deepdish but that result (which is the best in their pool) goes along with them barely beating the Cosmic Castaways in a 2-1 along with getting 3-2’d by both Galactic Gibbons and Ragnarok Loki. They will probably be just ok in B pool.
Cosmic Castaways struggled early in the stage, I think this is partially due to the expectations placed on them from last season's roster. They're starting to look better recently with the addition of Yoon, I think this is a team that will look better as the tournament continues.
I would be surprised if Monarch wins a map for the rest of the season.
Aurum B: MI7, Reminiscence, Adelaide Eclipse, Thunderduckies, Poseidon, Scylla(Dropped)
If MI7 were to play every week how they played against Reminiscence in Week 3, I think the only teams who could beat them at full strength would be Reminiscence, Adelaide Eclipse, as well as Chicago Deepdish if they had retained Smokey. The map loss to Thunderduckies looked like they were trolling with not only their gameplay but comps as well, where they played Reinhardt and Zarya with no Lucio on their Watchpoint: Gibraltar attack. Thunderduckies are a good enough team where it wasn't a free win, which was a good sign of life from them, proving at least in this pool of titans that they could not be taken lightly.
MI7 looks like the frontrunners heading towards stage 2 and playoffs. Trying to sound as unbiased as possible, I think the individual players on Reminiscence are good enough to where only a teams macro gameplay will be able to beat us, and I don't think a team under Deepdish has a good enough macro understanding and application in the current moment to exploit a macro weakness of Reminiscence.
Adelaide in my opinion is the 3rd best team in the tier. A lot of this roster is very individually talented, but they seem to struggle with tempo and macro cohesiveness. I think their issues and downfall will be the team's macro and the mechanical limit of some of their players, though this could change over time with more time together, as well as the game switch to Overwatch 2.
Thunderduckies are an upper to mid-tier team, in my opinion, they just seemed to put into the hardest group in the tier. They will probably be 2nd or 3rd best team in their stage 2 B pool group, obviously depending on who's in it.
Poseidon is going to be in the elimination pool, bar an upset over the Thunderduckies. Their only map wins so far have been the forfeit against Scylla who has dropped from the tournament. They also could potentially be one of the teams to be eliminated before playoffs, but their matches so far have been against very good teams, so it’s hard to judge them fairly.
Indigo A: Joey Esports, Redacted, Space Created, Seal Team Spuds, Vampyres, Nemesis
I don't know what’s going on in this group. If I was writing this before the week 4 games I would say joey is the best team but after their 0-3 loss to Redacted, I don't believe that is true any longer. I think this is a group where anyone out of Joey Esports, Redacted, Space Created, and Seal Team Spuds could beat each other depending on the day.
Redacted are going to come out of stage 1 with the best record with the 4-0 over Vampyres as they have the tiebreaker over Joey Esports. Though their previous results, with a loss against Space Created as well as the 2-1 win over Nemesis who is 0-5, don’t instill confidence going into Stage 2.
Joey is probably the #2 of this group unless there is another stun of a loss against Nemesis. The very opposing highs and lows of their rosters contribute to them looking very different on every map. This team definitely has high points where they could be a top 5 team, but they also have lows that are holding the team from consistently achieving this.
Week 5's game between the Seal Team Spuds and Space Created should be very close, it’s a very similar situation to Aurum A's match between Ragnarok Loki and Galactic Gibbons. Theoretically, these teams are both good, but the map scores are very inconsistent. They will probably both do well in the B pool where they would respectively end up unless Space Created achieves a better map record than Joey.
I have the Seal Team Spuds winning this match up, they’re a team who have and will continue to improve throughout the rest of the tournament as well as the pickup of Dorito for main support I expect to do a lot for this team.
Nemesis and Vampyres are also really close to each other, taking a lot of maps off of even the top teams in this group. I don't see either of them dropping into the elimination pool, in which they are locked. The overall strength of this pool will be confusing until we see pools mixed in stage 2, as these teams all seem very close to each other. This shows the parity in this group and was in my
opinion the most fun pool to watch, as it was impossible to guess how each match would go.
Indigo B: Avalon, Doodles, Hades, Adrenalines, Fahrenheit 214, Reckless Upsilon
In my opinion the weakest group of Stage 1.
Avalon should come out of this pool 5-0. If they beat the Doodles in their week 5 game 4-0 putting a statement out there, then it gives reason to believe they will have a shot in the A pool they get put into. This pool has made them look better than they are.
Doodles map scores being very inconsistent make me very hesitant on rating this team highly, going to map 5 with Reckless Upsilon who is currently 0-4 especially makes me worry. Maybe they end up working their magic from last season's harmony playoff win, but right now I don't see it working against the better teams in the discord tier, who not only can compete with them mechanically but have more experience against difficult and out of the box comps, A pool spells trouble for them, but I 100% could be proved wrong.
Hades will probably end up 3-2 in B pool, I don't see them beating any of the other B pool teams besides maybe Hammerhead, who also have shown to be inconsistent, as well as an unproven Thunderduckies team if they end up in the same group.
Adrenalines had a close game vs Avalon who should arguably be their hardest game, so last week gives reasoning to have them end up better than Hades even though they will have a worse record at the end of this group, unless they end up dropping a map to Fahrenheit 214, or even being upset by them this week. Then it was a fluke.
Fahrenheit 214 hasn’t shown reasoning to believe they will do well in the Elimination Pool. I think they will be one of the three teams who drop into the elimination pool unless there are significant changes going into Stage 2.
Reckless Upsilon going to map 5 with Doodles Week 1 looked interesting, but as the stage progressed the only map they've taken since then was one map against Fahrenheit 214. This team along with Monarch are 2 very likely drops in the elimination pool.
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